Sports Illustrated Stadium · Referee Rubiel Vazquez, USA · Analysis updated 20:34 UTC
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for New York Red Bulls and 1.80 for St. Louis City, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives St. Louis City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
St. Louis City win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
New York Red Bulls home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
St. Louis City away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates St. Louis City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 25% / 23% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for New York Red Bulls and 1.80 for St. Louis City, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–19.0%
- 0–28.1%
- 2–16.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.62 (model 41.7% vs market 35.5%, edge +6.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.62 | 35.5% | 41.7% | 2.40 | +6.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.95 | 48.1% | 48.5% | 2.06 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 23.0% | 23.1% | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.75 | 51.3% | 51.4% | 1.95 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.9% | 76.8% | 1.30 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 3.50 | 25.7% | 25.4% | 3.94 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.25 | 75.0% | 74.5% | 1.34 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 64.5% | 58.3% | 1.72 | -6.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
New York Red Bulls
- 2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs San Diego · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T23:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New York City FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Columbus Crew · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Angeles FC · 0-2 (L)
St. Louis City
- 2026-10-11T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles Galaxy · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-30T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New York Red Bulls · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Toronto FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Minnesota United FC · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-24T17:00:00.000Z · New York Red Bulls 3-1 St. Louis City (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-01-29T16:00:00.000Z · New York Red Bulls 0-1 St. Louis City (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-02-10T16:00:00.000Z · New York Red Bulls 2-2 St. Louis City (Friendlies Clubs)
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 51 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 50 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 37 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -11 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -3 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -3 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -15 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 30 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | -33 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 63 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 28 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 49 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 48 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | -15 | 37 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | -14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 10 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 33 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | DC United | 27 | 6 | 12 | 9 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | -15 | 27 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -21 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is St. Louis City win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.