OLS vs TPV Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for OLS and 1.22 for TPV, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives OLS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

OLS win

59.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.18 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

OLS home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
TPV away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates OLS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 20% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for OLS and 1.22 for TPV, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

OLS win59%

Draw20%

TPV win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

2–19.7%
1–18.9%
2–07.9%
1–07.3%
3–17.0%

Recent form

OLS

2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SalPa · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tampere United · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T11:30:00.000Z · H vs PKKU · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs JJK · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Rops · 1-1 (D)

TPV

2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs VJS · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KPV-j · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC jazz · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Turku II · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS Akatemia · 4-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ykkönen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tampere United	27	16	6	5	33	54
2	Rops	27	13	9	5	20	48
3	SalPa	27	14	6	7	12	48
4	VJS	27	12	10	5	14	46
5	OLS	27	11	8	8	11	41
6	FC jazz	27	11	7	9	1	40
7	PKKU	27	10	8	9	0	38
8	JJK	27	9	7	11	1	34
9	Inter Turku II	27	8	6	13	-9	30
10	TPV	27	8	6	13	-10	30
11	KPV-j	27	5	4	18	-52	19
12	KuPS Akatemia	27	3	7	17	-21	16

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is OLS win, at 59.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.