Stadionul Oțelul · Referee Rares George Vidican, Romania · Analysis updated 15:12 UTC
Oţelul vs Corvinul Hunedoara Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Oţelul and 1.07 for Corvinul Hunedoara, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Corvinul Hunedoara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.6% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Oţelul home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Corvinul Hunedoara away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Corvinul Hunedoara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 33% / 30% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Oţelul and 1.07 for Corvinul Hunedoara, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.8%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–27.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.83 (model 59.0% vs market 50.3%, edge +8.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.83 | 50.3% | 59.0% | 1.69 | +8.7 |
| Match result | Away | 2.50 | 36.5% | 37.2% | 2.69 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 69.5% | 69.7% | 1.43 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 67.5% | 67.6% | 1.48 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 30.4% | 30.4% | 3.29 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.50 | 63.0% | 62.9% | 1.59 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.75 | 33.1% | 32.5% | 3.08 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 49.7% | 41.0% | 2.44 | -8.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Oţelul
- 2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FCSB · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Bacau · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Corvinul Hunedoara · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Cluj · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapid · 0-1 (L)
Corvinul Hunedoara
- 2026-10-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Voluntari · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Viitorul Şelimbăr · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Oţelul · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Universitatea Craiova · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · Oţelul 2-3 Corvinul Hunedoara (Liga I)
- 2024-05-15T17:30:00.000Z · Oţelul 2-2 Corvinul Hunedoara (Cupa României)
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Rapid | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | FCSB | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 | FC Botosani | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 12 | Uta Arad | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -18 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.