Nubank Parque · Referee Braulio Da Silva Machado, Brazil · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Palmeiras vs Bahia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.84 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.91 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Palmeiras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Palmeiras win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
1.84 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Palmeiras home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bahia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.8%
- 2–010.8%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–06.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 49.7% vs market 42.4%, edge +7.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.4% | 49.7% | 2.01 | +7.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.40 | 39.3% | 40.7% | 2.46 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.53 | 59.2% | 59.3% | 1.69 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.1% | 18.2% | 5.49 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.7% | 22.5% | 4.44 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 82.1% | 81.8% | 1.22 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.6% | 77.5% | 1.29 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.6% | 50.3% | 1.99 | -7.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Palmeiras
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Bahia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs LDU de Quito · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 2-0 (W)
Bahia
- 2026-10-11T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Remo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-05T22:30:00.000Z · Palmeiras 2-1 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2025-09-28T19:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras 0-1 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2025-04-27T21:30:00.000Z · Palmeiras 0-1 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2024-11-20T21:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras 2-1 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2024-07-07T21:30:00.000Z · Palmeiras 2-0 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2023-10-28T23:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras 1-0 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2023-06-22T00:30:00.000Z · Palmeiras 0-1 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2021-10-13T00:30:00.000Z · Palmeiras 0-0 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2021-06-27T23:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras 3-2 Bahia (Serie A)
- 2020-12-12T22:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras 3-0 Bahia (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Palmeiras win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.