Nubank Parque · Referee Anderson Daronco · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Palmeiras vs Corinthians Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.65 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Palmeiras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Palmeiras win
60.4% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Palmeiras home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Corinthians away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Palmeiras to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 25% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Palmeiras and 0.65 for Corinthians, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.9%
- 2–013.5%
- 1–111.0%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.70 (model 61.9% vs market 54.7%, edge +7.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.70 | 54.7% | 61.9% | 1.62 | +7.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.45 | 38.3% | 39.6% | 2.53 | +1.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.11 | 84.6% | 85.1% | 1.18 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.53 | 60.1% | 60.4% | 1.66 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.75 | 24.5% | 24.7% | 4.05 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 6.00 | 15.3% | 14.9% | 6.71 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.0% | 75.3% | 1.33 | -1.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.05 | 45.3% | 38.1% | 2.62 | -7.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Palmeiras
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Bahia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs LDU de Quito · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 2-0 (W)
Corinthians
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Internacional · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes L.P. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Palmeiras win, at 60.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.