Nubank Parque · Referee Rafael Rodrigo Klein, Brazil · Analysis updated 21:34 UTC
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.95 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Palmeiras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Palmeiras win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Palmeiras home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sao Paulo away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–19.1%
Recent form
Palmeiras
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Bahia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs LDU de Quito · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 2-0 (W)
Sao Paulo
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T21:30:00.000Z · Palmeiras 2-0 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2026-03-22T00:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras 1-0 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2026-03-01T23:30:00.000Z · Palmeiras 2-1 Sao Paulo (Paulista - A1)
- 2026-01-24T21:30:00.000Z · Palmeiras 3-1 Sao Paulo (Paulista - A1)
- 2025-10-05T19:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras 3-2 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2025-05-11T20:30:00.000Z · Palmeiras 1-0 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2025-03-11T00:35:00.000Z · Palmeiras 1-0 Sao Paulo (Paulista - A1)
- 2025-02-16T21:30:00.000Z · Palmeiras 0-0 Sao Paulo (Paulista - A1)
- 2024-08-18T19:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras 2-1 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
- 2024-04-29T23:00:00.000Z · Palmeiras 0-0 Sao Paulo (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Palmeiras win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.