Toumba Stadium · Referee Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain · Analysis updated 10:14 UTC
PAOK vs Anderlecht Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for PAOK and 1.50 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives PAOK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PAOK home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Anderlecht away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates PAOK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 23% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for PAOK and 1.50 for Anderlecht, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.6%
- 1–06.8%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
PAOK
- 2026-10-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs OFI · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalamata · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Panetolikos · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atromitos · 1-0 (W)
Anderlecht
- 2026-10-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gent · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Jagiellonia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Beerschot VA · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cercle Brugge · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 4 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 24 | AC Milan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 35 | Celtic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.