PMFC Stadion · Analysis updated 10:09 UTC
Pécsi MFC vs Dunaujvaros FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Pécsi MFC and 0.95 for Dunaujvaros FC, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Pécsi MFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pécsi MFC win
67.2% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pécsi MFC home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dunaujvaros FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pécsi MFC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 19% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Pécsi MFC and 0.95 for Dunaujvaros FC, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–18.6%
- 3–07.8%
Recent form
Pécsi MFC
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Budaörs · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Szekszárd · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Siofok · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Budafoki LC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs PTE-PEAC · 1-1 (D)
Dunaujvaros FC
- 2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferencváros II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-17T09:00:00.000Z · A vs MTK Budapest II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pécsi MFC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Szekszárd · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Majosi · 2-7 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pécsi MFC | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 37 |
| 2 | Kaposvar | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Ferencváros II | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Iváncsa | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Majosi | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 6 | Dunaharaszti MTK | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Budafoki LC | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Siofok | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 17 |
| 9 | Érdi VSE | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | PTE-PEAC | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | MTK Budapest II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 15 |
| 12 | Budaörs | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -19 | 12 |
| 13 | Paksi SE II | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 14 | Sárbogárd | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -28 | 5 |
| 15 | Szekszárd | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -41 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pécsi MFC win, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.