Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia · Referee M. Nigro · Analysis updated 13:23 UTC
Pescara vs Ostia Mare Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Pescara and 0.75 for Ostia Mare, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Pescara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Pescara win
57.7% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pescara home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ostia Mare away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pescara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 25% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Pescara and 0.75 for Ostia Mare, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.3%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 57.9% vs market 44.9%, edge +13.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 44.9% | 57.9% | 1.73 | +13.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.25 | 41.5% | 42.3% | 2.36 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.14 | 81.9% | 82.6% | 1.21 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 1.55 | 57.5% | 57.7% | 1.73 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 24.7% | 24.9% | 4.02 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 17.8% | 17.4% | 5.75 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.6% | 75.1% | 1.33 | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.1% | 42.1% | 2.38 | -13.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Pescara
- 2026-10-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Guidonia Montecelio 1937 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Livorno · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Spezia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Vado · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gubbio · 1-1 (D)
Ostia Mare
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pianese · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Latina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Forli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gubbio · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Ravenna · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Ravenna | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 3 | Grosseto | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Torres | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Livorno | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Reggiana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Perugia | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 9 | Campobasso FC | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Pescara | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Forli | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 12 | Vado | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Latina | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 | Ostia Mare | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Atalanta II | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Pianese | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Pineto | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Gubbio | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 19 | Sambenedettese | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 20 | Vis Pesaro | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pescara win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.