· Analysis updated 04:52 UTC
Pirin Razlog vs FK Minyor Pernik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.58 expected goals for Pirin Razlog and 2.79 for FK Minyor Pernik, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives FK Minyor Pernik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FK Minyor Pernik win
83.1% probability
Expected goals
0.58 – 2.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pirin Razlog home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FK Minyor Pernik away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
17%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
95%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.4%
- 0–312.5%
- 0–19.6%
- 0–48.7%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
Pirin Razlog
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Sofia II · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Botev Ihtiman · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyustendil · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Simitli · 1-1 (D)
FK Minyor Pernik
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Beroe · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Botev Ihtiman · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyustendil · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Simitli · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Strumska Slava · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · Pirin Razlog 0-3 FK Minyor Pernik (Third League - Southwest)
- 2024-04-20T15:00:00.000Z · Pirin Razlog 0-2 FK Minyor Pernik (Third League - Southwest)
- 2023-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · Pirin Razlog 0-1 FK Minyor Pernik (Third League - Southwest)
- 2019-08-17T15:00:00.000Z · Pirin Razlog 0-3 FK Minyor Pernik (Third League - Southwest)
- 2019-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · Pirin Razlog 1-3 FK Minyor Pernik (Third League - Southwest)
- 2018-09-29T14:00:00.000Z · Pirin Razlog 2-2 FK Minyor Pernik (Third League - Southwest)
Third League - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minyor Pernik | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 30 |
| 2 | Oborishte | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 25 |
| 3 | Bansko | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 25 |
| 4 | Kostinbrod | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 21 |
| 5 | Strumska Slava | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Septemvri Sofia II | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | Balkan Botevgrad | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 19 |
| 8 | Slivnishki geroy | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia II | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 16 |
| 10 | CSKA Sofia III | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 11 | Botev Ihtiman | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 16 |
| 12 | Septemvri Simitli | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 13 | Chavdar Etropole | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 14 |
| 14 | Levski Sofia II | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Belasitsa | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | Natsional Sofia | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Kyustendil | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 18 | Pirin Razlog | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FK Minyor Pernik win, at 83.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.