· Analysis updated 20:57 UTC
Pitomača vs Bjelovar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Pitomača and 1.60 for Bjelovar, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Bjelovar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pitomača home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bjelovar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bjelovar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 36% / 24% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Pitomača and 1.60 for Bjelovar, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–18.1%
- 0–17.3%
- 1–06.8%
Recent form
Pitomača
- 2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bjelovar · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-11-29T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Daruvar · 6-2 (W)
- 2025-11-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Koprivnica · 0-6 (L)
- 2025-11-15T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nedelišće · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Garić Garešnica · 1-0 (W)
Bjelovar
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter Zapresic · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Varteks Varaždin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uskok Klis · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlovac 1919 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Grobničan Čavle · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · Pitomača 0-0 Bjelovar (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.