Fratton Park · Referee John Busby, England · Analysis updated 16:37 UTC
Portsmouth vs Blackburn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Portsmouth and 0.99 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Portsmouth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.8% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Portsmouth home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Portsmouth to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Portsmouth and 0.99 for Blackburn, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.1%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.0%
- 0–19.9%
- 2–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 54.1% vs market 48.5%, edge +5.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 48.5% | 54.1% | 1.85 | +5.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 71.3% | 72.1% | 1.39 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.70 | 55.8% | 56.1% | 1.78 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 28.0% | 28.2% | 3.55 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.10 | 44.0% | 43.9% | 2.28 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 28.0% | 27.9% | 3.58 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.9% | 71.8% | 1.39 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 51.5% | 45.9% | 2.18 | -5.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Portsmouth
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlton · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Derby · 0-2 (L)
Blackburn
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Portsmouth · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Millwall · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Utd · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Preston · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Portsmouth 2-2 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2026-03-07T12:30:00.000Z · Portsmouth 1-1 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2025-12-13T15:00:00.000Z · Portsmouth 2-1 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2025-03-29T15:00:00.000Z · Portsmouth 1-0 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2025-01-15T19:45:00.000Z · Portsmouth 0-3 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2018-02-13T19:45:00.000Z · Portsmouth 1-2 Blackburn (League One)
- 2017-10-21T14:00:00.000Z · Portsmouth 0-3 Blackburn (League One)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | West Ham | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | QPR | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Southampton | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 8 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Lincoln | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 11 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 20 | Norwich | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 9 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.