· Analysis updated 17:43 UTC
Prishtina vs Ferizaj Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Prishtina and 0.95 for Ferizaj, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Prishtina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Prishtina win
61.7% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Prishtina home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ferizaj away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Prishtina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 21% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Prishtina and 0.95 for Ferizaj, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.5%
- 2–010.5%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.0%
Recent form
Prishtina
- 2026-10-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ballkani · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Malisheva · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukagjini · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gjilani · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Feronikeli · 3-0 (W)
Ferizaj
- 2026-08-28T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Trepça'89 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Rilindja 1974 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Liria Prizren · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Llapi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Drenica Skënderaj · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malisheva | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 26 |
| 2 | Prishtina | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Gjilani | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Drita | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Dukagjini | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Ballkani | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Drenica Skënderaj | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Feronikeli | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 9 | Llapi | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 5 |
| 10 | Vushtrria | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Prishtina win, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.