Philips Stadion · Referee Danny Makkelie, Netherlands · Analysis updated 20:45 UTC
PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.28 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.92 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives PSV Eindhoven the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
PSV Eindhoven win
82.2% probability
Expected goals
3.28 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PSV Eindhoven home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Rotterdam away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
18%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.8%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–08.1%
- 2–17.4%
- 4–07.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.40 (model 42.5% vs market 38.5%, edge +4.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.40 | 38.5% | 42.5% | 2.35 | +4.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 5.80 | 16.5% | 17.8% | 5.62 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.12 | 82.1% | 82.2% | 1.22 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 8.50 | 10.8% | 10.9% | 9.17 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.03 | 93.1% | 93.1% | 1.07 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 13.00 | 7.1% | 6.9% | 14.49 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.06 | 90.4% | 89.1% | 1.12 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 61.5% | 57.5% | 1.74 | -4.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
PSV Eindhoven
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 3-1 (W)
Sparta Rotterdam
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs GO Ahead Eagles · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 4-1 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2026-04-11T16:45:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 2-0 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2025-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 6-1 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2025-05-18T12:30:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2024-10-05T18:00:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2024-05-05T10:15:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 4-2 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2023-10-08T14:45:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 4-0 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2023-05-06T16:45:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 1-0 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2023-01-10T20:00:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam (KNVB Beker)
- 2023-01-07T20:00:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is PSV Eindhoven win, at 82.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.