Philips Stadion · Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
PSV Eindhoven vs Telstar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.90 for Telstar, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives PSV Eindhoven the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
PSV Eindhoven win
72.6% probability
Expected goals
2.53 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PSV Eindhoven home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Telstar away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates PSV Eindhoven to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 16% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.53 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.90 for Telstar, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–08.7%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–17.9%
Recent form
PSV Eindhoven
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 1-1 (D)
Telstar
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs ADO Den Haag · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs AZ Alkmaar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-22T15:45:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 1-3 Telstar (Eredivisie)
- 2025-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 0-2 Telstar (Eredivisie)
- 2022-01-20T17:45:00.000Z · PSV Eindhoven 2-1 Telstar (KNVB Beker)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 13 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 15 | Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is PSV Eindhoven win, at 72.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.