Loftus Road · Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
QPR vs Derby Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for QPR and 0.87 for Derby, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives QPR the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
QPR win
55.3% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
QPR home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Derby away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–010.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 53.3% vs market 45.3%, edge +8.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 45.3% | 53.3% | 1.88 | +8.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.67 | 55.1% | 55.3% | 1.81 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 79.8% | 80.0% | 1.25 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 4.60 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.3% | 75.3% | 1.33 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 44.8% | 44.7% | 2.24 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.70 | 24.9% | 24.7% | 4.05 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.7% | 46.7% | 2.14 | -8.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
QPR
- 2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Preston · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs West Brom · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlton · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 0-1 (L)
Derby
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Burnley · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs West Brom · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · QPR 2-3 Derby (Championship)
- 2025-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · QPR 0-1 Derby (Championship)
- 2025-02-14T20:00:00.000Z · QPR 4-0 Derby (Championship)
- 2024-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · QPR 0-2 Derby (Championship)
- 2022-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · QPR 1-0 Derby (Championship)
- 2021-11-29T19:45:00.000Z · QPR 2-1 Derby (Championship)
- 2021-01-23T15:00:00.000Z · QPR 0-1 Derby (Championship)
- 2020-11-04T19:45:00.000Z · QPR 1-0 Derby (Championship)
- 2020-02-25T19:45:00.000Z · QPR 2-1 Derby (Championship)
- 2019-11-30T15:00:00.000Z · QPR 1-1 Derby (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is QPR win, at 55.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.