Loftus Road · Referee Thomas Parsons, England · Analysis updated 14:18 UTC
QPR vs Preston Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for QPR and 0.92 for Preston, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives QPR the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
QPR win
52.8% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
QPR home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Preston away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 52.2% vs market 46.7%, edge +5.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.7% | 52.2% | 1.92 | +5.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.75 | 52.6% | 52.8% | 1.89 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 46.9% | 47.1% | 2.12 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 4.20 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 4.57 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 78.1% | 78.0% | 1.28 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.5% | 25.2% | 3.97 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.0% | 74.7% | 1.34 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 53.3% | 47.8% | 2.09 | -5.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
QPR
- 2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Preston · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs West Brom · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlton · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 0-1 (L)
Preston
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Millwall · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs QPR · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Watford · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · QPR 2-2 Preston (Championship)
- 2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · QPR 1-1 Preston (Championship)
- 2025-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · QPR 1-1 Preston (Championship)
- 2025-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · QPR 2-1 Preston (Championship)
- 2024-12-21T15:00:00.000Z · QPR 2-1 Preston (Championship)
- 2024-04-20T16:15:00.000Z · QPR 1-0 Preston (Championship)
- 2023-12-01T20:00:00.000Z · QPR 2-0 Preston (Championship)
- 2023-04-07T14:00:00.000Z · QPR 0-2 Preston (Championship)
- 2022-12-17T15:00:00.000Z · QPR 1-0 Preston (Championship)
- 2022-04-09T14:00:00.000Z · QPR 1-2 Preston (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 6 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is QPR win, at 52.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.