Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques · Referee Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes, Brazil · Analysis updated 11:58 UTC
RB Bragantino vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.77 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.85 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 1.63. That distribution gives Atletico Paranaense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.4% probability
Expected goals
0.77 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
RB Bragantino home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Paranaense away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–019.7%
- 0–116.7%
- 1–015.3%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–27.1%
Recent form
RB Bragantino
- 2026-10-24T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 0-1 (L)
Atletico Paranaense
- 2026-10-24T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-12T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Chapecoense-sc · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico-MG · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Bahia · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T21:30:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 1-1 Atletico Paranaense (Serie A)
- 2026-07-11T13:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 2-1 Atletico Paranaense (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-02-25T22:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 1-1 Atletico Paranaense (Serie A)
- 2024-12-05T23:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 2-1 Atletico Paranaense (Serie A)
- 2024-08-07T22:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 2-3 Atletico Paranaense (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2024-07-31T22:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 0-2 Atletico Paranaense (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2024-07-21T21:30:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 1-0 Atletico Paranaense (Serie A)
- 2023-10-08T21:30:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 1-1 Atletico Paranaense (Serie A)
- 2023-05-20T21:30:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 2-0 Atletico Paranaense (Serie A)
- 2022-10-22T19:30:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 4-2 Atletico Paranaense (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 34 | 69 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 36 | 67 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 54 |
| 4 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 54 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 51 |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 50 |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 50 |
| 8 | Santos | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 46 |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 43 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 41 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 | Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | -31 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.