Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques · Referee Felipe Fernandes de Lima, Brazil · Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
RB Bragantino vs Gremio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.82 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives RB Bragantino the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
RB Bragantino win
57.8% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
RB Bragantino home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gremio away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates RB Bragantino to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 24% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for RB Bragantino and 0.82 for Gremio, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 2–011.6%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 54.5% vs market 48.5%, edge +6.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 48.5% | 54.5% | 1.83 | +6.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.7% | 75.9% | 1.32 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.25 | 42.0% | 42.2% | 2.37 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.57 | 57.7% | 57.8% | 1.73 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.1% | 18.1% | 5.52 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.75 | 24.2% | 24.1% | 4.15 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 82.3% | 81.9% | 1.22 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 51.5% | 45.5% | 2.20 | -6.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
RB Bragantino
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bahia · 2-3 (L)
Gremio
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Palmeiras · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is RB Bragantino win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.