Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques · Referee Raphael Claus, Brazil · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
RB Bragantino vs Mirassol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.69 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.91 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives RB Bragantino the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
RB Bragantino win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
1.69 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
RB Bragantino home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Mirassol away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.6%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 51.3% vs market 45.3%, edge +6.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 45.3% | 51.3% | 1.95 | +6.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.7% | 76.0% | 1.32 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.15 | 44.0% | 44.3% | 2.26 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 4.60 | 20.0% | 20.2% | 4.95 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.65 | 55.8% | 55.8% | 1.79 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 24.2% | 24.1% | 4.15 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 80.2% | 79.9% | 1.25 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.7% | 48.7% | 2.05 | -6.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
RB Bragantino
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Mirassol · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bahia · 2-3 (L)
Mirassol
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Uberlandia · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Coritiba · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-13T23:30:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 1-2 Mirassol (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2026-04-23T00:30:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 1-1 Mirassol (Copa Do Brasil)
- 2026-04-05T23:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 1-0 Mirassol (Serie A)
- 2026-01-21T23:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 0-0 Mirassol (Paulista - A1)
- 2025-10-01T22:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 1-1 Mirassol (Serie A)
- 2025-05-05T22:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 1-0 Mirassol (Serie A)
- 2025-02-20T21:30:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 3-0 Mirassol (Paulista - A1)
- 2023-02-11T23:30:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 0-0 Mirassol (Paulista - A1)
- 2022-01-27T23:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 1-3 Mirassol (Paulista - A1)
- 2021-04-17T23:00:00.000Z · RB Bragantino 2-1 Mirassol (Paulista - A1)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is RB Bragantino win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.