Red Bull Arena · Referee Isa Simsek, Austria · Analysis updated 11:22 UTC
Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.05 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Red Bull Salzburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Red Bull Salzburg win
58.3% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Red Bull Salzburg home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sturm Graz away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Red Bull Salzburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.05 for Sturm Graz, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–09.5%
- 3–16.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.62 (model 44.3% vs market 35.5%, edge +8.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.62 | 35.5% | 44.3% | 2.26 | +8.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.38 | 39.9% | 41.7% | 2.40 | +1.8 |
| Match result | Away | 4.60 | 19.9% | 20.0% | 5.00 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.57 | 58.3% | 58.3% | 1.72 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.20 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 4.61 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 79.1% | 78.3% | 1.28 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 81.1% | 80.0% | 1.25 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 64.5% | 55.7% | 1.80 | -8.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Red Bull Salzburg
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celje · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs SCR Altach · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Grazer AK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC BW Linz · 1-2 (L)
Sturm Graz
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Grazer AK · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Austria Vienna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Floridsdorfer AC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Red Bull Salzburg · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 27 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 21 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 19 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | Ried | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 7 | WSG Wattens | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -15 | 10 |
| 9 | SCR Altach | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 10 | Austria Lustenau | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 11 | Austria Vienna | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 7 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Red Bull Salzburg win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.