· Analysis updated 06:50 UTC
Redditch United vs Halesowen Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Redditch United and 0.93 for Halesowen Town, a combined total of 1.58. That distribution gives Halesowen Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 21% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
75.4% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Redditch United home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Halesowen Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 25% / 35% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.65 goals for Redditch United and 0.93 for Halesowen Town, a combined 1.58 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–020.7%
- 0–119.1%
- 1–013.5%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–28.9%
Recent form
Redditch United
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Berkhamsted · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough Sports · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedworth United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club Warwick · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Evesham United · 3-0 (W)
Halesowen Town
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stafford Rangers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stafford Rangers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Rushall Olympic · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wellingborough Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mickleover Sports · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · Redditch United 3-1 Halesowen Town (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2026-01-31T15:00:00.000Z · Redditch United 3-1 Halesowen Town (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2025-10-14T18:45:00.000Z · Redditch United 3-2 Halesowen Town (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2024-12-21T15:00:00.000Z · Redditch United 1-2 Halesowen Town (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2024-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · Redditch United 0-3 Halesowen Town (FA Trophy)
- 2024-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · Redditch United 3-2 Halesowen Town (FA Cup)
- 2024-08-12T18:45:00.000Z · Redditch United 2-2 Halesowen Town (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2024-02-10T15:00:00.000Z · Redditch United 2-1 Halesowen Town (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2023-10-30T19:45:00.000Z · Redditch United 1-1 Halesowen Town (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2021-05-18T00:00:00.000Z · Redditch United 2-0 Halesowen Town (Friendlies Clubs)
Non League Premier - Southern Central table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 32 |
| 2 | Bury Town | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 31 |
| 3 | Bromsgrove Sporting | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | Rushall Olympic | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Needham Market | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 23 |
| 6 | Peterborough Sports | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 7 | Kettering Town | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 22 |
| 8 | Alvechurch | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 9 | Anstey Nomads | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 10 | Racing Club Warwick | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 11 | Halesowen Town | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Stourbridge | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Redditch United | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 14 | Hitchin Town | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | Bishop's Stortford | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 13 |
| 16 | Banbury United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 | Leiston | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 18 | Stratford Town | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -8 | 12 |
| 19 | Leamington | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 10 |
| 20 | Worcester City | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 21 | Leighton Town | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -13 | 5 |
| 22 | Stamford | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -32 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 75.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 21%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.