Lnk Sporta Parks · Referee Peiman Simani, Finland · Analysis updated 15:13 UTC
Rīgas FS vs Glentoran Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Rīgas FS and 1.00 for Glentoran, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Rīgas FS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rīgas FS win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rīgas FS home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Glentoran away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rīgas FS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Rīgas FS and 1.00 for Glentoran, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–110.0%
- 3–06.6%
Recent form
Rīgas FS
- 2026-08-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Jablonec · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Grobiņa · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Jablonec · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vestri · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums · 1-0 (W)
Glentoran
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dungannon Swifts · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Carrick Rangers · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cliftonville FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Coleraine FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangor · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-16T16:30:00.000Z · Rīgas FS 2-0 Glentoran (UEFA Europa Conference League)
- 2026-07-09T18:30:00.000Z · Rīgas FS 2-1 Glentoran (UEFA Europa Conference League)
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | FC Copenhagen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Mjallby AIF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | St. Truiden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | FC Lugano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Monaco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | HNK Hajduk Split | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Panathinaikos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Brann | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Gent | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Twente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Kairat Almaty | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Heart Of Midlothian | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Universitatea Craiova | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 22 | Riga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 | FK Jablonec | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Ajax | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Borac Banja Luka | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | Aarhus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 30 | FC Thun | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 31 | KuPS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Pafos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 33 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 34 | FC Iberia 1999 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 35 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rīgas FS win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.