· Analysis updated 16:33 UTC
Rio Ave vs Arouca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Rio Ave and 1.80 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Arouca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Arouca win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rio Ave home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arouca away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–06.1%
Recent form
Rio Ave
- 2026-10-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Louletano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Estrela · 3-3 (D)
Arouca
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs CF Os Belenenses · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-11T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Estrela · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Clara · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-11T12:00:00.000Z · Rio Ave 2-1 Arouca (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-01-31T18:00:00.000Z · Rio Ave 0-3 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-08-23T19:30:00.000Z · Rio Ave 3-3 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-02-10T20:15:00.000Z · Rio Ave 1-1 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · Rio Ave 1-0 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-07-20T10:00:00.000Z · Rio Ave 3-2 Arouca (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-04-19T19:15:00.000Z · Rio Ave 1-1 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-12-10T18:00:00.000Z · Rio Ave 2-2 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-07-30T19:30:00.000Z · Rio Ave 0-2 Arouca (Taça da Liga)
- 2023-04-28T19:15:00.000Z · Rio Ave 1-0 Arouca (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arouca win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.