Estádio do Rio Ave FC · Referee Gustavo Correia, Portugal · Analysis updated 15:22 UTC
Rio Ave vs Estrela Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Rio Ave and 2.48 for Estrela, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Estrela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Estrela win
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 2.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rio Ave home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Estrela away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.2%
- 1–37.7%
- 1–17.6%
- 0–36.7%
Recent form
Rio Ave
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Estrela · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-28T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 0-4 (L)
Estrela
- 2026-10-11T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-10T19:15:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-14T17:45:00.000Z · Rio Ave 3-3 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
- 2026-03-15T18:00:00.000Z · Rio Ave 2-1 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-10-25T19:30:00.000Z · Rio Ave 2-1 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-05-05T18:30:00.000Z · Rio Ave 2-0 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-12-23T20:45:00.000Z · Rio Ave 0-1 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-04-14T14:30:00.000Z · Rio Ave 2-2 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-12-02T15:30:00.000Z · Rio Ave 1-1 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-02-14T18:00:00.000Z · Rio Ave 1-0 Estrela (Segunda Liga)
- 2021-09-10T19:15:00.000Z · Rio Ave 5-2 Estrela (Segunda Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Estrela win, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.