Portugal · Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 219:30

19:30 UTC

Saturday, 15 August 2026

· Referee M. Fonseca · Analysis updated 18:35 UTC

Rio Ave vs FC Porto Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Rio Ave and 1.35 for FC Porto, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives FC Porto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Match result (1X2)

Rio Ave win31%
Draw27%
FC Porto win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

69%

Model pick

FC Porto or Draw

68.6% probability

Medium confidence

Expected goals

1.13 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Both teams to score50%

Correct score

  • 1–112.8%
  • 0–111.3%
  • 1–09.5%
  • 1–28.6%
  • 0–08.4%

Why the model likes this

    Recent form

    Rio Ave

      FC Porto

        Head-to-head

        Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

        Primeira Liga table

        Full league page →
        #TeamPWDLGDPts
        1Sporting CP211014
        2FC Porto110023
        3GIL Vicente110013
        4Maritimo110013
        5Arouca110013
        6Estrela202002
        7SC Braga101001
        8Nacional101001
        9Academico Viseu101001
        10Famalicao101001
        11Estoril101001
        12Santa Clara101001
        13Moreirense101001
        14Benfica101001
        15Alverca2011-21
        16Rio Ave1001-10
        17Casa Pia1001-10
        18Vitória SC2002-20

        Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.