Estádio do Rio Ave FC · Referee Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca, Portugal · Analysis updated 14:07 UTC
Rio Ave vs FC Porto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.74 expected goals for Rio Ave and 2.01 for FC Porto, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives FC Porto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Porto win
67.1% probability
Expected goals
0.74 – 2.01
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Rio Ave home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Porto away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Porto to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 13% / 20% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.74 goals for Rio Ave and 2.01 for FC Porto, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.9%
- 0–112.8%
- 1–29.6%
- 1–19.5%
- 0–38.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.38 | 68.5% | 70.3% | 1.42 | +1.8 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.73 | 53.6% | 54.7% | 1.83 | +1.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 48.2% | 2.07 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.90 | 32.1% | 32.9% | 3.04 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 7.70 | 12.1% | 12.8% | 7.81 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.07 | 87.0% | 87.2% | 1.15 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 1.39 | 67.1% | 67.1% | 1.49 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.50 | 20.7% | 20.1% | 4.98 | -0.6 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 51.8% | 1.93 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 80.9% | 79.9% | 1.25 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 46.4% | 45.3% | 2.21 | -1.1 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 29.7% | 3.37 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Rio Ave
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Louletano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Estrela · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 0-4 (L)
FC Porto
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritimo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Benfica · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Casa Pia · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Porto win, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.