Rio Ave vs GIL Vicente Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Rio Ave and 1.31 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives GIL Vicente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

GIL Vicente win

45.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.92 – 1.31

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Rio Ave home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
GIL Vicente away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Rio Ave win26%

Draw28%

GIL Vicente win46%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

0–114.0%
1–113.0%
0–010.7%
1–09.9%
0–29.2%

Recent form

Rio Ave

2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Louletano · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-14T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Estrela · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 0-4 (L)

GIL Vicente

2026-10-19T19:15:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs União Santarém · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-09T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · Rio Ave 0-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2026-05-03T19:30:00.000Z · Rio Ave 0-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2025-12-20T18:00:00.000Z · Rio Ave 2-2 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2025-08-02T11:00:00.000Z · Rio Ave 1-3 GIL Vicente (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-05-16T18:00:00.000Z · Rio Ave 1-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2025-01-06T20:15:00.000Z · Rio Ave 1-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2024-07-24T10:00:00.000Z · Rio Ave 1-2 GIL Vicente (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-04-06T14:30:00.000Z · Rio Ave 3-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2023-11-12T15:30:00.000Z · Rio Ave 1-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
2023-03-12T15:30:00.000Z · Rio Ave 2-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	9	9	0	0	17	27
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	5	3	0	11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	8	18
5	Arouca	9	5	2	2	5	17
6	Academico Viseu	8	4	2	2	1	14
7	GIL Vicente	9	4	2	3	1	14
8	Alverca	9	3	2	4	0	11
9	SC Braga	8	3	2	3	-1	11
10	Estrela	9	2	4	3	-3	10
11	Vitória SC	9	2	2	5	0	8
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-7	8
13	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	-10	8
14	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	-1	7
15	Rio Ave	8	2	1	5	-9	7
16	Casa Pia	9	2	1	6	-12	7
17	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-9	4
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	-8	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is GIL Vicente win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.