KWABO-stadion · Analysis updated 07:59 UTC
RKAV Volendam vs Spakenburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for RKAV Volendam and 1.47 for Spakenburg, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Spakenburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Spakenburg win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
RKAV Volendam home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spakenburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spakenburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 26% / 26% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for RKAV Volendam and 1.47 for Spakenburg, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–112.2%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–08.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.50 (model 50.8% vs market 37.5%, edge +13.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.50 | 37.5% | 50.8% | 1.97 | +13.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.9% | 26.2% | 3.82 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.6% | 73.7% | 1.36 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.29 | 73.6% | 73.7% | 1.36 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.91 | 47.5% | 47.5% | 2.11 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.80 | 52.8% | 52.4% | 1.91 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 3.40 | 26.7% | 26.2% | 3.82 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 62.5% | 49.2% | 2.03 | -13.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
RKAV Volendam
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs ROHDA Raalte · 8-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Almere City II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs GVVV Veenendaal · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Spakenburg · 2-2 (D)
Spakenburg
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Amsterdam · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs De Treffers · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs RKAV Volendam · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Almere City II · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Spakenburg win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.