Levi's Stadium · Referee Drew Fischer, Canada · Analysis updated 09:44 UTC
San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.43 for Los Angeles FC, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Los Angeles FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
San Jose Earthquakes home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Los Angeles FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Los Angeles FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 32% / 26% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.43 for Los Angeles FC, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–17.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.62 (model 46.4% vs market 35.5%, edge +10.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.62 | 35.5% | 46.4% | 2.16 | +10.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.65 | 57.3% | 58.1% | 1.72 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.3% | 74.1% | 1.35 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.8% | 25.9% | 3.86 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.80 | 32.2% | 32.2% | 3.11 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.15 | 42.0% | 41.9% | 2.39 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 69.5% | 67.8% | 1.47 | -1.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 64.5% | 53.6% | 1.87 | -10.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
San Jose Earthquakes
- 2026-10-18T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Nashville SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-15T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Salt Lake · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Portland Timbers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles FC · 2-2 (D)
Los Angeles FC
- 2026-10-17T23:30:00.000Z · A vs New York City FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-15T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Austin · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Dallas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:30:00.000Z · A vs San Jose Earthquakes · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 55 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 54 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 51 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 48 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 48 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 47 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 43 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | -9 | 41 |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | -4 | 37 |
| 12 | San Diego | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | -3 | 35 |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | -8 | 35 |
| 14 | Austin | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | -17 | 34 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | 6 | 4 | 21 | -40 | 22 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 31 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 43 | 70 |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 31 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 55 |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 31 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 20 | 55 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 51 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 47 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 46 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | -12 | 42 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | -7 | 42 |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | -15 | 39 |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 31 | 11 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 38 |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | -11 | 36 |
| 12 | New York City FC | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 35 |
| 13 | DC United | 31 | 7 | 12 | 12 | -17 | 33 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 31 | 8 | 6 | 17 | -15 | 30 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 31 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -26 | 25 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.