· Analysis updated 04:42 UTC
Santa Clara vs Estoril Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Santa Clara and 0.50 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Santa Clara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Santa Clara win
66.9% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 0.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santa Clara home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Estoril away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.8%
- 2–016.0%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–19.4%
- 3–09.1%
Recent form
Santa Clara
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mafra · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Casa Pia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave · 4-0 (W)
Estoril
- 2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Moreirense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salgueiros · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Academico Viseu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Casa Pia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T19:45:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-31T15:30:00.000Z · Santa Clara 2-4 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-09-06T19:30:00.000Z · Santa Clara 1-0 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-01-18T15:30:00.000Z · Santa Clara 2-3 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-08-11T14:30:00.000Z · Santa Clara 4-1 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-04-30T14:30:00.000Z · Santa Clara 0-3 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-11-14T20:15:00.000Z · Santa Clara 3-1 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-04-10T14:30:00.000Z · Santa Clara 2-0 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-11-29T20:15:00.000Z · Santa Clara 2-2 Estoril (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Santa Clara win, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.