Santa Clara vs Maritimo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.43 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Maritimo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

66.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Santa Clara home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maritimo away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Santa Clara win33%

Draw26%

Maritimo win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.3%
0–19.8%
1–28.7%
1–08.6%
2–17.7%

Recent form

Santa Clara

2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mafra · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Casa Pia · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Arouca · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Rio Ave · 4-0 (W)

Maritimo

2026-10-23T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 0-5 (L)
2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcochetense · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-14T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2024-04-14T19:30:00.000Z · Santa Clara 0-0 Maritimo (Segunda Liga)
2023-12-03T15:30:00.000Z · Santa Clara 2-1 Maritimo (Segunda Liga)
2023-02-25T18:00:00.000Z · Santa Clara 1-3 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
2022-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · Santa Clara 2-1 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
2022-07-29T19:30:00.000Z · Santa Clara 0-1 Maritimo (Friendlies Clubs)
2022-04-23T17:00:00.000Z · Santa Clara 2-2 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
2021-12-11T15:30:00.000Z · Santa Clara 1-4 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
2021-02-08T19:00:00.000Z · Santa Clara 2-1 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
2020-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · Santa Clara 2-0 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)
2020-07-03T18:15:00.000Z · Santa Clara 0-1 Maritimo (Primeira Liga)

Primeira Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	9	9	0	0	17	27
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	5	3	0	11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	8	18
5	Arouca	9	5	2	2	5	17
6	Academico Viseu	8	4	2	2	1	14
7	GIL Vicente	9	4	2	3	1	14
8	Alverca	9	3	2	4	0	11
9	SC Braga	8	3	2	3	-1	11
10	Estrela	9	2	4	3	-3	10
11	Vitória SC	9	2	2	5	0	8
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-7	8
13	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	-10	8
14	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	-1	7
15	Rio Ave	8	2	1	5	-9	7
16	Casa Pia	9	2	1	6	-12	7
17	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-9	4
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	-8	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.