Estadio de São Miguel · Referee H. Carvalho · Analysis updated 20:39 UTC
Santa Clara vs Nacional Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.84 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.51 for Nacional, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Santa Clara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.
Model pick
Santa Clara to Win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.51
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.5%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Santa Clara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 23% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.84 goals for Santa Clara and 1.51 for Nacional, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
Santa Clara to Win is the headline pick at 46% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Santa Clara
Nacional
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | FC Porto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 7 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Academico Viseu | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Santa Clara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.