Estádio Urbano Caldeira · Referee Anderson Daronco, Brazil · Analysis updated 19:38 UTC
Santos vs Flamengo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Santos and 1.57 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Flamengo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Flamengo win
52.3% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.57
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Santos home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Flamengo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 1–112.0%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 52.1% vs market 42.1%, edge +10.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.1% | 52.1% | 1.92 | +10.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.22 | 76.9% | 77.6% | 1.29 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 4.20 | 21.8% | 22.3% | 4.48 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.4% | 25.3% | 3.95 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.0% | 74.6% | 1.34 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 1.73 | 52.8% | 52.3% | 1.91 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.95 | 48.1% | 47.6% | 2.10 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.60 | 57.9% | 47.9% | 2.09 | -10.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Santos
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-08T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 2-4 (L)
Flamengo
- 2026-10-11T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Santos · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Bragantino · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente del Valle · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-05T20:30:00.000Z · Santos 1-3 Flamengo (Serie A)
- 2025-11-09T21:30:00.000Z · Santos 2-3 Flamengo (Serie A)
- 2025-07-16T23:00:00.000Z · Santos 1-0 Flamengo (Serie A)
- 2023-11-01T23:00:00.000Z · Santos 2-1 Flamengo (Serie A)
- 2023-06-25T21:30:00.000Z · Santos 2-3 Flamengo (Serie A)
- 2022-10-26T00:45:00.000Z · Santos 2-3 Flamengo (Serie A)
- 2022-07-02T22:00:00.000Z · Santos 1-2 Flamengo (Serie A)
- 2021-12-06T23:00:00.000Z · Santos 1-0 Flamengo (Serie A)
- 2021-08-28T22:00:00.000Z · Santos 0-4 Flamengo (Serie A)
- 2020-12-13T19:00:00.000Z · Santos 1-4 Flamengo (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Flamengo win, at 52.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.