Santos vs Palmeiras Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Santos and 1.89 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.96. That distribution gives Palmeiras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.

Model pick

Palmeiras to Win

56.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.08 – 1.89

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Santos win21%

Draw22%

Palmeiras win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–110.5%
1–29.9%
0–19.8%
0–29.2%
1–36.2%

Why the model likes this

Palmeiras away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Palmeiras to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 21% / 22% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Santos and 1.89 for Palmeiras, a combined 2.96 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Santos

Palmeiras

2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Porteno · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza EC · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortaleza EC · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	-2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	1	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.