Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 1.23 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Atletico-MG the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

66.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.13 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Sao Paulo home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico-MG to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 34% / 28% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.23 for Atletico-MG, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Sao Paulo win34%

Draw28%

Atletico-MG win39%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–113.1%
0–111.7%
1–010.7%
0–09.5%
1–28.1%

Recent form

Sao Paulo

2026-10-24T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Vasco DA Gama · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-02T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 1-2 (L)

Atletico-MG

2026-10-21T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Torque · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-17T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Coritiba · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-14T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Torque · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-08T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-05T21:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 2-0 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
2026-03-18T23:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 0-1 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
2025-08-24T23:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 2-0 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
2025-04-06T19:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 0-0 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
2024-11-24T00:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 2-2 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
2024-09-13T00:45:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 0-0 Atletico-MG (Copa Do Brasil)
2024-08-29T00:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 0-1 Atletico-MG (Copa Do Brasil)
2024-07-12T00:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 1-2 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
2023-12-03T00:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 1-2 Atletico-MG (Serie A)
2023-08-06T19:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 0-2 Atletico-MG (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	32	20	9	3	34	69
2	Flamengo	31	20	7	4	36	67
3	Cruzeiro	32	16	6	10	5	54
4	Atletico Paranaense	32	15	9	8	12	54
5	Fluminense	32	14	9	9	9	51
6	Atletico-MG	31	14	8	9	7	50
7	Bahia	32	13	11	8	5	50
8	Santos	32	12	10	10	2	46
9	Sao Paulo	32	12	7	13	1	43
10	RB Bragantino	32	11	8	13	1	41
11	Botafogo	32	10	9	13	-7	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	-11	39
13	Vasco DA Gama	31	10	8	13	-6	38
14	Vitoria	32	10	8	14	-11	38
15	Mirassol	32	9	10	13	-8	37
16	Internacional	32	8	11	13	-4	35
17	Corinthians	32	8	9	15	-8	33
18	Gremio	31	7	10	14	-10	31
19	Remo	32	5	11	16	-16	26
20	Chapecoense-sc	31	4	9	18	-31	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.