Estadio Do MorumBIS · Analysis updated 04:21 UTC
Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 1.11 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Sao Paulo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.
Model pick
Sao Paulo or Draw
70.1% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–08.2%
Why the model likes this
Sao Paulo home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico-MG away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sao Paulo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 27% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.11 for Atletico-MG, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Sao Paulo
- 2026-08-12T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-31T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 0-1 (L)
Atletico-MG
- 2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-04T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Juventude · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventude · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-26T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 48 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 42 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 33 |
| 6 | Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 33 |
| 7 | RB Bragantino | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 32 |
| 8 | Corinthians | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 32 |
| 9 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 30 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 30 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 29 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 25 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 17 | Santos | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -6 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco DA Gama | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -8 | 22 |
| 19 | Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -10 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | -23 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.