MorumBIS · Referee Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima, Brazil · Analysis updated 16:37 UTC
Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 0.88 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Sao Paulo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sao Paulo win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sao Paulo home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cruzeiro away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sao Paulo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 25% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Sao Paulo and 0.88 for Cruzeiro, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Sao Paulo
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 1-1 (D)
Cruzeiro
- 2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Sao Paulo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Santos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Paranaense · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sao Paulo win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.