Estadio Do MorumBIS · Referee Matheus Delgado Candançan, Brazil · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Sao Paulo vs Santos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 0.76 for Santos, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Sao Paulo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sao Paulo win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sao Paulo home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Santos away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.8%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–112.8%
- 2–010.4%
- 0–110.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.83 (model 62.2% vs market 51.1%, edge +11.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.83 | 51.1% | 62.2% | 1.61 | +11.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 75.4% | 77.2% | 1.30 | +1.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.3% | 29.6% | 3.38 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.91 | 47.5% | 47.6% | 2.10 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.8% | 70.4% | 1.42 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 3.90 | 23.3% | 22.8% | 4.39 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 53.8% | 52.4% | 1.91 | -1.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 48.9% | 37.8% | 2.65 | -11.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Sao Paulo
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 1-1 (D)
Santos
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-08T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico-MG · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-04T23:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 1-1 Santos (Serie A)
- 2026-01-31T23:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 2-0 Santos (Paulista - A1)
- 2025-09-21T23:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 0-1 Santos (Serie A)
- 2025-04-20T19:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 2-1 Santos (Serie A)
- 2025-02-01T23:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 1-3 Santos (Paulista - A1)
- 2024-02-14T22:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 0-1 Santos (Paulista - A1)
- 2023-11-12T21:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 0-0 Santos (Serie A)
- 2023-07-16T19:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 4-1 Santos (Serie A)
- 2023-02-12T22:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 3-1 Santos (Paulista - A1)
- 2022-08-21T22:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 0-1 Santos (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sao Paulo win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.