Morumbi · Referee Lucas Casagrande · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 0.78 for Vitoria, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Sao Paulo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sao Paulo win
56.1% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sao Paulo home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vitoria away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 2–011.8%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.80 (model 57.1% vs market 52.0%, edge +5.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.80 | 52.0% | 57.1% | 1.75 | +5.1 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.3% | 18.5% | 5.41 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.15 | 43.6% | 43.8% | 2.28 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.4% | 25.3% | 3.95 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 81.5% | 81.4% | 1.23 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.62 | 56.4% | 56.1% | 1.78 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.0% | 74.6% | 1.34 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.95 | 48.0% | 42.9% | 2.33 | -5.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Sao Paulo
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitoria · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 1-1 (D)
Vitoria
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Sao Paulo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirassol · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Gremio · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T19:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 0-2 Vitoria (Serie A)
- 2025-12-07T19:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 0-1 Vitoria (Serie A)
- 2025-08-09T21:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 2-0 Vitoria (Serie A)
- 2024-08-25T21:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 2-1 Vitoria (Serie A)
- 2024-05-05T19:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 3-1 Vitoria (Serie A)
- 2018-10-26T22:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 1-0 Vitoria (Serie A)
- 2018-06-13T00:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 3-0 Vitoria (Serie A)
- 2017-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 2-1 Vitoria (Serie A)
- 2017-06-08T22:30:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 2-0 Vitoria (Serie A)
- 2016-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · Sao Paulo 0-2 Vitoria (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 64 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 63 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 53 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 48 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 40 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sao Paulo win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.