· Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
SC Braga vs Famalicao Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for SC Braga and 1.53 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Famalicao the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Famalicao win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SC Braga home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Famalicao away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Famalicao to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 26% / 26% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for SC Braga and 1.53 for Famalicao, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–08.0%
Recent form
SC Braga
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gent · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T19:15:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Copenhagen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 0-0 (D)
Famalicao
- 2026-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Paredes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-12T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nacional · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Famalicao win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.