Estádio Municipal de Braga · Referee Fabio Verissimo · Analysis updated 16:03 UTC
SC Braga vs GIL Vicente Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for SC Braga and 0.88 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives SC Braga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.4% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SC Braga home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SC Braga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 32% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for SC Braga and 0.88 for GIL Vicente, a combined 1.88 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–015.3%
- 1–015.3%
- 0–113.4%
- 1–113.4%
- 2–07.7%
Recent form
SC Braga
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Copenhagen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Estoril · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 1-2 (L)
GIL Vicente
- 2026-10-09T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Moreirense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Maritimo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-14T20:30:00.000Z · SC Braga 1-2 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-09-14T19:30:00.000Z · SC Braga 0-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-02-09T18:00:00.000Z · SC Braga 2-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-09-01T19:30:00.000Z · SC Braga 0-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-03-16T18:00:00.000Z · SC Braga 2-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-10-28T19:30:00.000Z · SC Braga 3-3 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-04-16T17:00:00.000Z · SC Braga 1-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-10-30T20:30:00.000Z · SC Braga 1-0 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-03-13T20:30:00.000Z · SC Braga 0-1 GIL Vicente (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.