· Analysis updated 03:42 UTC
SC Braga vs Nacional Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for SC Braga and 0.67 for Nacional, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives SC Braga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
SC Braga win
59.1% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SC Braga home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nacional away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.6%
- 2–013.1%
- 1–111.2%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.8%
Recent form
SC Braga
- 2026-10-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nacional · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gent · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T19:15:00.000Z · H vs GIL Vicente · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Copenhagen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP · 1-3 (L)
Nacional
- 2026-10-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanjoanense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-28T18:00:00.000Z · SC Braga 2-1 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-11-23T17:30:00.000Z · SC Braga 4-2 Nacional (Taça de Portugal)
- 2025-09-28T17:00:00.000Z · SC Braga 0-1 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-02-21T20:15:00.000Z · SC Braga 1-0 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-09-20T19:15:00.000Z · SC Braga 3-0 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-12-22T20:15:00.000Z · SC Braga 3-1 Nacional (Taça da Liga)
- 2023-04-25T18:30:00.000Z · SC Braga 2-2 Nacional (Taça de Portugal)
- 2023-04-12T18:30:00.000Z · SC Braga 5-0 Nacional (Taça de Portugal)
- 2021-02-28T20:00:00.000Z · SC Braga 2-1 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
- 2020-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · SC Braga 2-1 Nacional (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 | Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 | Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 | Estoril | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SC Braga win, at 59.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.