Estádio Municipal de Braga · Referee Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
SC Braga vs Sporting CP Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for SC Braga and 1.34 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Sporting CP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.8% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SC Braga home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting CP away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–112.8%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–28.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 53.1% vs market 45.3%, edge +7.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 45.3% | 53.1% | 1.88 | +7.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.33 | 71.3% | 71.8% | 1.39 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 27.3% | 27.5% | 3.64 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.10 | 44.2% | 44.3% | 2.26 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.70 | 55.8% | 55.7% | 1.80 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 3.25 | 28.5% | 28.2% | 3.55 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.9% | 72.5% | 1.38 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.7% | 46.9% | 2.13 | -7.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
SC Braga
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T19:45:00.000Z · H vs Estoril · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 1-0 (W)
Sporting CP
- 2026-10-09T19:15:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Galatasaray · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-07T18:00:00.000Z · SC Braga 2-2 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-10-05T18:15:00.000Z · SC Braga 1-1 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-04-07T19:45:00.000Z · SC Braga 1-1 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-11-10T18:45:00.000Z · SC Braga 2-4 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-02-11T18:00:00.000Z · SC Braga 0-5 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-01-23T19:45:00.000Z · SC Braga 1-0 Sporting CP (Taça da Liga)
- 2023-09-03T19:30:00.000Z · SC Braga 1-1 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-02-01T21:15:00.000Z · SC Braga 0-5 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-12-19T20:15:00.000Z · SC Braga 0-5 Sporting CP (Taça da Liga)
- 2022-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · SC Braga 3-3 Sporting CP (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.