Home Deluxe Arena · Referee Felix Zwayer, Germany · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 2.01 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives VfB Stuttgart the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
VfB Stuttgart win
58.9% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 2.01
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SC Paderborn 07 home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
VfB Stuttgart away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfB Stuttgart to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 20% / 21% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 2.01 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.9%
- 0–29.2%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–36.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.62 (model 42.8% vs market 35.5%, edge +7.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.62 | 35.5% | 42.8% | 2.34 | +7.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.20 | 79.1% | 80.2% | 1.25 | +1.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.8% | 78.7% | 1.27 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 1.57 | 58.7% | 58.9% | 1.70 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.33 | 21.3% | 21.3% | 4.69 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 4.60 | 20.0% | 19.8% | 5.05 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.20 | 43.1% | 41.1% | 2.43 | -2.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 64.5% | 57.2% | 1.75 | -7.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
SC Paderborn 07
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs VfB Stuttgart · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T23:30:00.000Z · A vs DC United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Freiburg · 0-1 (L)
VfB Stuttgart
- 2026-10-01T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Viking · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2023-01-31T17:00:00.000Z · SC Paderborn 07 1-2 VfB Stuttgart (DFB Pokal)
- 2015-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · SC Paderborn 07 1-2 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
- 2014-12-20T14:30:00.000Z · SC Paderborn 07 0-0 VfB Stuttgart (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is VfB Stuttgart win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.