· Analysis updated 20:39 UTC
Schwaz vs FC Augsburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Schwaz and 1.25 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 5.75. That distribution gives Schwaz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 88%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 88% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Schwaz win
87.7% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Schwaz home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Augsburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Schwaz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 88%, against 88% / 7% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Schwaz and 1.25 for FC Augsburg, a combined 5.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
12%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–16.8%
- 5–16.1%
- 3–16.0%
- 4–05.4%
- 5–04.9%
Recent form
Schwaz
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Swarovski Tirol II · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SVG Reichenau · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dornbirn · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rheindorf Altach II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kufstein · 2-1 (W)
FC Augsburg
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Schwaz win, at 87.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 88% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.