· Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
Serrano PE U20 vs Nautico U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.89 expected goals for Serrano PE U20 and 1.69 for Nautico U20, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Nautico U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nautico U20 win
56.1% probability
Expected goals
0.89 – 1.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Serrano PE U20 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nautico U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nautico U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 20% / 24% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.89 goals for Serrano PE U20 and 1.69 for Nautico U20, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.8%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–210.8%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Serrano PE U20
- 2026-09-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Academica Vitoria U20 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaguar U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarany U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Recife U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-10-22T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Ipojuca U20 · 1-1 (D)
Nautico U20
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaguar U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarany U20 · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Serrano PE U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Academica Vitoria U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs America PE U20 · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pernambucano - U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Cruz U20 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 20 |
| 1 | Sport Recife U20 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 18 |
| 2 | Retrô U20 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 17 |
| 2 | Nautico U20 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Ipojuca U20 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Academica Vitoria U20 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | CA Porto U20 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 14 |
| 4 | America PE U20 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 |
| 5 | Central SC U20 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Petrolina U20 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 6 | 1º de Maio U20 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 6 | Serrano PE U20 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Ibis Sport Club U20 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 7 | Jaguar U20 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 8 | Atletico PE U20 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -24 | 3 |
| 8 | Guarany U20 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -33 | 0 |
| 9 | Atletico Torres U20 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -22 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nautico U20 win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.