Stade de Genève · Referee Johannes von Mandach, Switzerland · Analysis updated 15:33 UTC
Servette FC vs FC Luzern Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Servette FC and 1.08 for FC Luzern, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Servette FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Servette FC win
50.2% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Servette FC home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Luzern away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Servette FC
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Sion · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Annecy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs BSC Young Boys · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Thun · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lausanne · 1-0 (W)
FC Luzern
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Lugano · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Freiburg · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshoppers · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Basel 1893 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs BSC Young Boys · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · Servette FC 1-1 FC Luzern (Super League)
- 2026-05-09T18:30:00.000Z · Servette FC 3-3 FC Luzern (Super League)
- 2026-04-06T14:30:00.000Z · Servette FC 3-0 FC Luzern (Super League)
- 2025-11-22T17:00:00.000Z · Servette FC 2-2 FC Luzern (Super League)
- 2025-08-31T14:30:00.000Z · Servette FC 2-2 FC Luzern (Super League)
- 2025-05-18T14:30:00.000Z · Servette FC 4-3 FC Luzern (Super League)
- 2025-04-21T14:30:00.000Z · Servette FC 2-1 FC Luzern (Super League)
- 2024-10-31T19:30:00.000Z · Servette FC 2-2 FC Luzern (Super League)
- 2024-07-21T14:30:00.000Z · Servette FC 2-1 FC Luzern (Super League)
- 2024-03-17T15:30:00.000Z · Servette FC 2-2 FC Luzern (Super League)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 28 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 22 |
| 3 | FC Sion | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | FC ST. Gallen | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | FC Zurich | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 6 | Servette FC | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Luzern | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 8 |
| 12 | Lausanne | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Servette FC win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.