comtech Arena · Referee Maximilian Lotz, Germany · Analysis updated 13:23 UTC
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Waldhof Mannheim Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 1.36 for Waldhof Mannheim, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Waldhof Mannheim away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 25% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach and 1.36 for Waldhof Mannheim, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–17.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.50 (model 41.6% vs market 36.5%, edge +5.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.50 | 36.5% | 41.6% | 2.40 | +5.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 65.8% | 66.4% | 1.51 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 2.15 | 41.4% | 41.7% | 2.40 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 24.7% | 24.7% | 4.05 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 58.5% | 58.4% | 1.71 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.62 | 33.9% | 33.7% | 2.97 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.8% | 75.4% | 1.33 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 63.5% | 58.4% | 1.71 | -5.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Wehen · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Preußen Münster · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Viktoria Köln · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Waldhof Mannheim · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 1-1 (D)
Waldhof Mannheim
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Würzburger Kickers · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Elversberg · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2020-06-20T12:00:00.000Z · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2-3 Waldhof Mannheim (3. Liga)
- 2019-11-09T13:00:00.000Z · SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0-3 Waldhof Mannheim (3. Liga)
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Alemannia Aachen | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 7 | Hoffenheim II | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
| 8 | Hansa Rostock | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 16 |
| 9 | SV Wehen | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 | SV Meppen | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | Stuttgart II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Waldhof Mannheim | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 14 | Preußen Münster | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 | Verl | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 12 |
| 17 | Würzburger Kickers | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 19 | Fortuna Köln | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 20 | Havelse | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.