IAI Stadium Nihondaira · Referee Koichiro Fukushima, Japan · Analysis updated 07:15 UTC
Shimizu S-pulse vs Kashiwa Reysol Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Shimizu S-pulse and 1.67 for Kashiwa Reysol, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Kashiwa Reysol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kashiwa Reysol win
47.2% probability
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Shimizu S-pulse home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kashiwa Reysol away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kashiwa Reysol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 29% / 24% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Shimizu S-pulse and 1.67 for Kashiwa Reysol, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.9%
- 0–27.5%
- 2–17.1%
Recent form
Shimizu S-pulse
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kanazawa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs JEF United Chiba · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Avispa Fukuoka · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kawasaki Frontale · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Tokyo · 1-1 (D)
Kashiwa Reysol
- 2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Imabari · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Machida Zelvia · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Jeonbuk Motors · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyoto Sanga · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 26 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 23 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Kashiwa Reysol | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | Kashima | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Urawa | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 18 |
| 9 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Shimizu S-pulse | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 14 |
| 12 | Nagoya Grampus | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | Cerezo Osaka | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 13 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 | Gamba Osaka | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 16 | Mito Hollyhock | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 | Kyoto Sanga | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 7 |
| 19 | JEF United Chiba | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 6 |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | -14 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kashiwa Reysol win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.