Stadium Holice · Analysis updated 14:38 UTC
Sigma Olomouc II vs Blansko Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc II and 0.60 for Blansko, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Sigma Olomouc II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sigma Olomouc II win
75.0% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sigma Olomouc II home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Blansko away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sigma Olomouc II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 17% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Sigma Olomouc II and 0.60 for Blansko, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.6%
- 1–013.0%
- 3–011.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–17.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Goals — Under 3.5 at 1.85 (model 68.1% vs market 48.6%, edge +19.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5Value | 1.85 | 48.6% | 68.1% | 1.47 | +19.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 4.20 | 22.2% | 25.0% | 4.00 | +2.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.40 | 16.4% | 16.7% | 5.99 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.18 | 75.1% | 75.0% | 1.33 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 10.50 | 8.4% | 8.3% | 12.05 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.01 | 92.3% | 91.7% | 1.09 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.09 | 85.5% | 83.3% | 1.20 | -2.2 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 1.75 | 51.4% | 31.9% | 3.13 | -19.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Sigma Olomouc II
- 2026-10-18T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Karviná II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Havířov · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Vítkovice · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Uherský Brod · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Zlín II · 3-1 (W)
Blansko
- 2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Karviná II · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Vítkovice · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Zlín II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Polanka nad Odrou · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Líšeň II · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - MSFL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Líšeň II | 13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 29 |
| 2 | Uničov | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 29 |
| 3 | Zbrojovka Brno II | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | Frýdek-Místek | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| 5 | Hranice | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Sigma Olomouc II | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 22 |
| 7 | Slovácko II | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Unie Hlubina | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Uherský Brod | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 10 | Hodonín | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 17 |
| 11 | Vítkovice | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 12 | Zlín II | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 15 |
| 13 | Karviná II | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 14 |
| 14 | Vrchovina | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 14 |
| 15 | Havířov | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -9 | 11 |
| 16 | Blansko | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -11 | 11 |
| 17 | Vsetín | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -16 | 10 |
| 18 | Polanka nad Odrou | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sigma Olomouc II win, at 75.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.