OmaSp Stadion · Referee J. Nieminen · Analysis updated 08:54 UTC
SJK Akatemia vs KäPa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for SJK Akatemia and 1.53 for KäPa, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives KäPa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SJK Akatemia home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
KäPa away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–18.1%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–07.5%
Recent form
SJK Akatemia
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs PK-35 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kooteepee · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs EIF · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs KäPa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs MP · 1-1 (D)
KäPa
- 2026-10-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rops · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs EIF · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs MP · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Haka · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs SJK Akatemia · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · SJK Akatemia 2-3 KäPa (Ykkösliiga)
- 2026-07-17T16:00:00.000Z · SJK Akatemia 2-2 KäPa (Ykkösliiga)
- 2026-04-10T16:00:00.000Z · SJK Akatemia 2-2 KäPa (Ykkösliiga)
- 2026-02-22T11:00:00.000Z · SJK Akatemia 0-0 KäPa (Ykköscup)
- 2025-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · SJK Akatemia 1-3 KäPa (Ykkösliiga)
- 2025-06-18T14:00:00.000Z · SJK Akatemia 5-3 KäPa (Ykkösliiga)
- 2025-04-27T15:30:00.000Z · SJK Akatemia 3-0 KäPa (Ykkösliiga)
- 2025-04-12T10:00:00.000Z · SJK Akatemia 4-2 KäPa (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-08-13T15:30:00.000Z · SJK Akatemia 2-0 KäPa (Ykkösliiga)
- 2024-07-20T13:00:00.000Z · SJK Akatemia 4-0 KäPa (Ykkösliiga)
Ykkösliiga table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.